The Politics of Climate

There are few concepts in science that I can think of that are more politically polarizing than climate. The story behind why this has occurred in some places (the US and the UK) and why it has never been the same kind of political issue in others (the rest of the world) is complicated. Most science focusing on the environment, in has some type of public policy element to it because people have an enormous impact (collectively and individually) on the world around us.

Climate is different. It has been elevated to the same level of political partisanship as the theory of evolution during the monkey trial of 1925. Though most scientists cringe at the notion that anything as complicated as a changing climate should be distilled down to simple binaries, it is nevertheless interesting to see how perceptions among Americans change over time. The Pew Research Center has been survey populations about the issue for years and their latest polling (released Dec. 1) shows some interesting results.

Global Forest Update

The UN Food and Agriculture Organization recently completed their latest global forest survey. In it, they conclude that while deforestation is indeed continuing around the world, it is not necessarily as bad as expected. Not surprisingly, most of the forest loss is concentrated in the tropics worldwide. The clip below is a short interview with Adam Gerrand of FAO describing the methodology and some of the major findings. Of note to Geographers, the latest assessment relies heavily on satellite surveys.



Given the prominence of the REDD program in the last couple rounds of climate talks, the ability to quickly and accurately assess forest cover (if not forest composition or density) is a valuable form of objective measurement that can be used to assess country claims regarding forest protection, degradation, and reforestation.

Path Dependency

In comments today, the US negotiator in Durban Jonathan Pershing clearly illustrated the American strategy and why so many other countries are so frustrated with us. Last year in Mexico, there was a target adopted by the conference of limiting warming to 2 degrees C (3.6 degrees F). While a great number of small and poor countries are trying to convince others to lower this target to 1.5 degrees C, most developed countries are debating how this target should best be reached. Responding to a question about whether the current commitments made by the US are sufficient to reach to the 2 degrees C target Pershing stated "...one has to marry a politically pragmatic outcome with a scientifically important conclusion. If you demand more than the politics can deliver, you don't succeed."

Analyzing Commitments

If there is a theme to the climate meeting in Durban it may just be a quote taken from a member of the Climate Analytics group, "the ambition level is not sufficient". A cynic might suggest that this has actually been a fairly consistent theme since the UN process began in 1992. Despite the high hopes that the international process would be able to overcome this lack of ambition prior to the Copenhagen talks, it remains an open question whether this process can ever really produce the kind of overall impact that would reduce or forestall the worst effects expected from warming in the next century.

Climate Analytics is a non-governmental organization based in Germany that has dedicated themselves to quantifying the ability, or lack thereof, of the political process to reduce greenhouse gas emissions leading to increasing temperatures and climatic instability. Most of their work can be found on the Climate Action Tracker website.

Survey says...!

Today the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) released a provisional statement on the status of global climate in 2011.  At this point it seems appropriate to point out that we have been here before and heard the same things stated over and over again.

Based on data collected from the WMO around the world, they are concluding that despite the fact that 2011 was a La Niña year, it is currently tied as the 10th warmest year on record globally. As you can see on the graph above during La Niña events global temperatures typically cool. The data also shows that the average temperatures seen during La Niña events is trending upwards as well meaning the cool years are getting a lot less cool. 

Science vs. Policy

Sitting in on a European Union presentation entitled "Roadmap 2050" I can't help but think that one of the fundamental problems separating public policy and many traditional views of the scientific enterprise is that empirical science primarily looks backwards as a key to understanding what might happen in the future while policy primarily looks forward with the present and the past used as a baseline.

Roadmap 2050 describes a strategy for reducing carbon emissions generated by the EU power grid by 80% by the middle of the century. It is a roadmap that describes different ways in which we can create the future we want. Of course, what we want and how we should best get there are highly debatable points but they provide us with targets to shoot for.

A great deal of science, especially science that most highly values empirical data and observations, has little to say about what should occur in the future. It is reflective, having the capacity to explain what has happened and what the driving factors behind those events are. Another factor is that what should occur is a normative question of value that cannot be easily answered from a perspective that prizes objectivity and dispassionate assessment of facts.

Lessons learned from empirical science can of course be applied to forecasts of the future and policy statements but often there seems to be a distinct split between reflective science and prospective science.